Guide

Spread & Retail Market Sentiment

Two adjacent sub-sections that sit in the same row of the terminal: Reference Spreads shows typical ECN trading costs per pair, and Retail Market Sentiment shows retail trader positioning via the Myfxbook community. Used together, they give a complementary view of execution cost and crowd positioning.

Reference Spreads

The Reference Spreads panel shows typical ECN (Electronic Communication Network) spreads for the seven major FX pairs, expressed in pips. These are representative spreads — not live quotes from a specific broker — and represent average conditions during normal market hours.

EUR/USD
0.9 pip
GBP/USD
1.1 pip
USD/JPY
2.0 pip
USD/CAD
2.5 pip
NZD/USD
3.0 pip

The horizontal bar represents the spread relative to the widest reference pair shown. A shorter bar means lower cost (tighter spread). The value is color-coded by cost tier:

Color Coding

Green — Tight (< 1.5 pip) Low execution cost. Standard for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on major ECN brokers during London-NY overlap.
Orange — Moderate (1.5–2.5 pip) Typical for USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF. Acceptable for most strategies but relevant for scalping.
Red — Wide (> 2.5 pip) Typical for USD/CAD, NZD/USD. Higher relative cost. Spreads on these pairs can spike 2–5× during thin liquidity windows (Asian session, news events).
These are reference spreads, not live quotes. Actual spreads at your broker depend on account type (ECN vs. market maker), session, news events, and market conditions. Spreads on all pairs widen significantly during non-overlap hours and around high-impact data releases. Always check your broker's live spread before sizing a trade.

Spreads by Session

Spreads are not static. They compress during high-liquidity sessions and widen during thin periods. Understanding when spreads are their tightest is essential for execution-sensitive strategies:

SessionUTC HoursEUR/USD TypicalUSD/JPY Typical
Sydney22:00–07:001.2–2.0 pip1.5–2.5 pip
Tokyo00:00–09:000.9–1.5 pip0.8–1.2 pip
London08:00–17:000.4–0.9 pip0.8–1.5 pip
New York13:00–22:000.3–0.7 pip0.9–1.5 pip
London–NY Overlap13:00–17:000.2–0.5 pip0.7–1.2 pip
News event (any)±2 min5–20 pip5–20 pip

Retail Market Sentiment

Below the Reference Spreads, the Retail Market Sentiment widget shows the percentage of retail traders who are currently long vs. short each major pair, sourced from the Myfxbook community platform.

Each pair is shown with two numbers: the long percentage and the short percentage. These sum to 100% and represent the directional positioning of Myfxbook's tracked account community in real time.

Myfxbook Data

Myfxbook is a third-party platform where retail forex traders connect their live broker accounts for automated trade tracking, performance analysis, and social sharing. The "Forex Outlook" widget aggregates the open positions of all connected accounts by pair and direction.

What it measures
The directional bias of currently-open retail trades on each pair. If 65% of accounts are long EUR/USD, it means more retail money is positioned for EUR/USD to rise than to fall.
Update frequency
Near real-time — the widget pulls live data from Myfxbook's API and updates every 30 minutes in the terminal. The data reflects the current open position balance, not recent trade flow.
Coverage
Major pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, NZD/USD) plus several crosses and exotic pairs. The terminal shows only the majors.
Who is included
Retail traders who have voluntarily connected their live (or demo) accounts to Myfxbook. This is a biased sample — active, platform-engaged retail traders — not the full retail market.

Contrarian Logic — How to Use Sentiment

Retail sentiment data is most useful as a contrarian indicator. The underlying logic: retail traders, as a group, tend to be wrong at extremes. When the overwhelming majority of retail positions are on one side, the market has already extracted most of the available profit from that move — meaning the next significant move is likely in the opposite direction.

Sentiment ReadingContrarian InterpretationConfidence
70–80% LongModerate contrarian short signal. Crowd is bullish but not at extreme. Monitor for trend exhaustion.Medium
>80% LongStrong contrarian short signal. Extreme crowd positioning historically precedes meaningful reversals.High (contrarian)
45–55% either sideNeutral. No useful signal from sentiment alone. Defer to rate differentials, COT, and price action.None
70–80% ShortModerate contrarian long signal. Most retail short positions suggest limited further downside.Medium
>80% ShortStrong contrarian long signal. Extreme short crowd often precedes sharp short squeezes.High (contrarian)
Extreme readings can persist. A pair can be 80%+ long for weeks while it continues to fall. Retail traders are slow to close losing positions. Sentiment extremes identify elevated risk of reversal, not guaranteed entry points. Always combine with price action confirmation and COT data before acting.

Limitations of Retail Sentiment

Retail positioning data from Myfxbook has meaningful limitations that professional traders account for:

  • Sample bias: Only Myfxbook-connected accounts are included. Active, platform-engaged retail traders may behave differently from the full retail population.
  • Not institutional: This data says nothing about hedge fund, bank, or institutional positioning. For institutional positioning, use the COT panel.
  • Position vs. flow: Sentiment shows the stock of open positions, not the flow of new trades. A high long reading might reflect losing long-term positions that haven't been closed, not fresh bullish conviction.
  • Delayed signal: Retail traders are trend-followers who enter late and exit late. The contrarian signal works best at extremes because retail is most heavily positioned after a trend has already run most of its course.

Combining Spreads and Sentiment

These two sections work together to inform when and how to execute — not only what direction to trade. Consider:

Execution timing: If your analysis points to a trade, Reference Spreads tells you which session gives you the best execution cost. Entering a GBP/USD position during the London–NY overlap (13:00–17:00 UTC) costs roughly 1/3 of what the same trade costs at 22:00 UTC.
Sentiment confirmation: If you're looking for a long trade on AUD/USD and sentiment shows 78% of retail accounts are already long, reconsider position sizing — the crowd is with you, which is typically a late-cycle signal. If sentiment shows 72% short and you're looking to go long, that's a confluence: contrarian sentiment alignment with your directional bias.

The highest-quality setups from the Retail Market Sentiment section arise when retail sentiment extremes align with COT institutional positioning in the opposite direction — meaning retail is crowded one way while smart money is positioned the other way. This is the core confluence signal.

GUIDESPREAD & MARKET SENTIMENT
FX Terminal v4.1